Microsimulations of Emergency Evacuation in Rocky Mountain National Park

Ayse Akyildiz; Bing  Pan; Guanhao Xu; Vikash Gayah; Scott M. Esser; John Hannon; B. Derrick Taff; Peter Newman; Yun Liang; Christopher Monz

doi:10.18666/JPRA-2026-12905

Microsimulations of Emergency Evacuation in Rocky Mountain National Park

Authors

Ayse Akyildiz The Pennsylvania State University https://orcid.org/0009-0007-9247-106X
Bing Pan The Pennsylvania State University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4094-2495
Guanhao Xu Oak Ridge National Laboratory https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1432-6357
Vikash Gayah The Pennsylvania State University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0648-3360
Scott M. Esser National Park Service https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9401-9401
John Hannon National Park Service
B. Derrick Taff The Pennsylvania State University
Peter Newman The Pennsylvania State University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5349-4847
Yun Liang Kansas State University https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1451-0872
Christopher Monz Utah State University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1166-8984

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18666/JPRA-2026-12905

Keywords:

Emergency evacuation, microsimulation, agent-based simulation, national parks, protected areas

Abstract

National parks are anticipated to face increased challenges due to the adverse im-pacts of climate change and growing park visitation. The use of predictive tools to evaluate the impacts of different disaster scenarios and potential management strategies is needed. This study presents an application of microsimulations to es-timate evacuation time and evaluate traffic conditions in national parks through a case study of the Bear Lake area within Rocky Mountain National Park. The area was examined under nine base scenarios consisting of three different visitor vol-umes and three exit strategies, and four additional scenarios including the effects of unendorsed parking, a car accident, construction on a road, and traffic control at an intersection. We found that the area was evacuated in approximately six hours under the base conditions. The results suggest that the overall evacuation time does not vary greatly based on the three different visitor volumes while different exit strategies created a larger variance in total evacuation time. Factors such as the rate at which hikers return to the trailhead parking lots and the proportion of vehicles already on roadways determined the speed of the entire evacuation. The additional scenarios revealed that unendorsed parking and road construction in the Bear Lake area may delay the initial stages of the evacuation, while the other scenarios do not lead to significant delays.

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Published

2026-04-20

Issue

Online First

Section

Research Papers

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