When Climate Meets Crowds: Land Managers and Outdoor Recreation Providers’ Responses to Climate and Social Change in Parks and Protected Areas

Abstract

In 2023, outdoor recreation participation reached a 15-year high, coinciding with the warmest year on record. This convergence creates complex challenges for land managers and outdoor recreation providers (providers). Despite widespread recognition of these challenges, there is a gap in research that examines the providers' perspectives and their preferred techniques for managing multiple stressors. Using complex adaptive systems and resilience theories as a guide, this study addresses that gap by exploring the perceptions of climate-related operational impacts, social impacts, and management preferences of providers across New Hampshire’s Parks and Protected Areas (NH PPAs). As part of New Hampshire’s 2024–2028 Statewide Comprehensive Outdoor Recreation Plan (NH SCORP), data were collected from 338 providers (e.g., individuals working for organizations that provide or promote outdoor recreation) from federal, state, municipal, and private organizations via a web-based survey in spring 2023. Quantitative measures assessed seven operational areas (e.g., maintenance, planning, staffing), two types of social impacts (e.g., crowding, conflict), and support for direct and indirect management techniques. Qualitative data were analyzed using the constant comparative method to assess quality (e.g., positive, negative) of climate-related operational impacts. Finally, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was used to explore the relationships between multiple impacts and different management preferences. Quantitative findings show that providers perceived moderate levels of climate-related operational and social impacts and that they are predominantly negative. SEM results indicate that climate-related operational impacts predicted increased support for indirect management techniques (e.g., education), while social impacts predicted support for direct techniques (e.g., access restrictions). Qualitative findings indicate these stressors compound, suggesting integrated management techniques may be needed for effective adaptation. This study contributes to a growing body of literature by introducing the Provider Operational Impacts Index, a validated scale for measuring climate-related operational impacts, to inform state and regional outdoor recreation planning and support long-term resilience.