Forecasting in Recreation and Park Management: Need, Substance, and Reasonableness

Authors

  • Leslie E. Cummings
  • James A. Busser

Keywords:

Forecasting models, futuring, planning, reasonableness recreation and park professionals

Abstract

In a time of competing demands and diminishing resources, the formulation and interpretation of forecasts is an especially critical skill for recreation and park managers. This article is intended to provide the professional with a discriminating understanding of forecasts and their application through a review ofpertinent literature. The conceptual realm of forecasts, as well as modeling components and techniques are discussed. The article focuses upon the need to examine the degree of confidence to place in a given forecast, and establishes a frame for questioning the reasonableness of forecast models and results. Implications for managers are discussed.

Published

1994-01-04

Issue

Section

Regular Papers